Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Using the last polling data, most from Sunday which shows how its breaking, actually looks pretty good for Kerry. So heres my official prediction
Wisconsin.
Latest Zogby poll from Sunday shows Kerry up by 7. many other polls show Bush leading, but Zogby was the most accurate pollster from 2000, so im gonna give this to Kerry. A bold prediction but I stick by it.
Wisconsin: Kerry
Pennsylvania.
This one is easy. Kerry’s been leading, albeit a very small lead, in every poll for almost a month.
Pennsylvania: Kerry
Florida.
Polls show Kerry just got a 1 point lead in zogby’s Sunday poll, the FOX news poll has him with a 5 point lead (but FOX makes sure to mention this quickly and then change the focus to the polls showing him behind), the gallup poll shows Kerry with a 4 point lead (but the last poll gallup uses a weird undecided mathematics to predict how they’ll vote). There are 3 other polls showing bush with a small lead but they are using poll data from last Wednesday on, so it doesn’t account for the clear momentum shift in Kerrys direction.
All that plus the gigantic Get out the Vote effort in the state, millions of pissed of minorities who wqere denied there rights in 200, should make it look good. But I still say it goes Bush. You simply cannot combat the pure evil that is the GOP down there. Jebs still Governer. Those “felons” who were purged from the rolls are still purged. Those electronic voting machines built by huge Bush supporters are already screwing up, the flyers urging people to get out and vote “November 3rd” are all over. Kerry will have more people wanting to vote for him, but he wont get more votes than Bush.
Florida: Bush
Ohio.
2 of the 3 most recent polls show bush with a very small lead. But Zogby has Kerry up by 7. Also, I saw a reporter on VCapitol Gang this weekend saying the ground game there by dems is so good Bush will need at least a 3 point advantage going in to counter it.
Ohio: Kerry
Final Tally:
Kerry 271 Bush 267
